Concrete Takeoff Spreadsheet – And although some analysts have seen since last year that one of these times of recession is a thing of the past, the truth is that the sector does not just get out of the difficult situation.
Moreover, a judgment of the analyst Javier Fernández Riva, of the side effects on the generation of jobs, during the rest of the year in the sector’s recession will continue to act as a brake on the economy, which a year ago only half a figure Of 2.5 percent, according to their estimates.
At stake is no small matter: construction is one of the sectors most used by the genders, especially for the less qualified strata of the population, which has a great multiplier effect on other economic activities: when it is well favored The aggregate demand of the economy, but when it falls into a crisis it expels labor that it can not easily hook.
According to the Colombian Chamber of Construction, Camacol, the recession actually worsened in May 1995, when the growth rate in a full year of square meters in the quince construction licenses of the cities of the country, Until April 1997.
Despite the skepticism of some analysts and the builders themselves (as found in a recent survey), the technical vice-president of the guild, Camilo Silva, maintains that the recovery has not been crowded and added that this situation can be seen in the Censuses of Construction work being carried out by the National Administrative Department of Statistics, Dane.
The situation can be summarized in that they are not really sticking bricks at this time, they know that they are going to hit the sea well later this year at the beginning of the next, adds Silva.
One from the trial, as of May this year the growth of licenses has recovered, especially in subsectors such as housing, although other buildings continue to show negative figures.
Surveys such as the delay in the case of housing of social interest, which is not easy. That makes us more optimistic, he adds.
Meanwhile, some sectors in the construction share this vision on the future of the activity.
For the presidency of the Federation of Real Estate Markets, Fedelonjas, Clemencia Parra, although the sector showed a fall of 20 percent in the first half, that figure is already good and the first quarter term was 28 percent.
What it shows is that from the second quarter there was a recovery, which makes the period of January-June has a better behavior than that observed in January-March, he adds.
By cities, also check for an improvement in real estate activity. For example, the case of Cali, which in the first quarter had decreased 54 percent, which in the second quarter fell to 33 percent.
That means a significant recovery in transactions, especially in housing of social interest and in the direction of the low and middle-middle strata, Parra says.
Thus, the Fedelonjas presidency is of the opinion that this month has definitely been definitive for the consolidation of the sector and for what may happen in 1998.
For us as far as the transactions concludes it will surely be a year of decline, but not as serious as the first quarter it was 28 percent.
Zero growth In summary, for real estate activity calculations of Fedelonjas indicate that the fall will be 10 and 12 percent.
However, Silva does not distance himself much from those who consider that it is not wrong at all to say that the recession has been longer than many had originally planned, so the sector as a whole will show a growth of zero percent during this year.
And while interest rates have fallen by about eleven points in the past year, Camacol’s vice president believes that real rates of 13 percent, such as those currently seen, are too high to wait for a faster take-off of construction activity .
In reality it would require real rates of 8 percent; Therefore, we do not think that the reactivation will take place immediately.
Regarding the causes of the crisis, Silva does not hesitate to attribute it, at equal percentages of 50 percent, to the restrictive monetary policy advanced by the Banco de la República and to the government’s fiscal deficit, which has pushed up interest rates.
Even so, it is a fact that in some cities of the country there is a significant increase in sales, evidently marked by the fall in the cost of money. This is, for example, the case of Bogota.
In no case can it be thought that behind the crisis is the persecution of drug traffickers, who would never have been able to demand the 13 million square meters that were built during the boom that crossed the sector, adds Silva.